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Greece and the Big Fat “Who Cares?”

Posted by kdadmin on July 13th, 2015.

Greece and the Big Fat “Who Cares?”

When the media went crazy about Greece, I decided to stay out of it. It’s a stupid waste of time. If you’re an American, and if you have all your money invested stateside. Which, if you’re reading my blog, chances are you do. Unless you’re my European friends, whom I love from a distance but can’t advise unless your money is held in the USA …

If you ARE a citizen of the EU, then you may care A LOT. Mainly because NATO doesn’t need a member (Greece) who is financially in bed with Russia. But, then again, Russia doesn’t need an ally who is emotionally in bed with NATO. So, that relationship is unlikely to happen. You Europeans have bigger problems than whether or not Greece bails on the EU. A strong dollar, rapid inflation, a socialist soon to be bankrupt France, and a concentration of wealth and power in Germany; to name a few. But that’s all for another post. Plus, if you look at the chart above, VGK (the ETF that tracks the FTSE index) is doing FAR better than GREK (the ETF that tracks Greece). So go have a pint and watch some football.

If you’re a citizen of the USA, turn off the damn telly. Have a look at this chart. Notice how the USA’s S&P 500 tracking ETF, SPY, is not at all correlated (correlated = moves in the same way) with the GREK? Notice how SPY is also NOT predicatively correlated with Europe’s VGK? In other words, you can’t use the VGK to predict what SPY will do. So, let it go. Greecedoesn’t bleeping matter.

At all.

Not one little bit.

Anyone who is telling you otherwise is trying to sell you something. In other words, if two indexes are not correlated, then crisis in one does not mean crisis in the other. This is how the market works.

So, go play golf, go sailing, go for a walk, go biking, carry buckets of water across your yard, have a drink, smoke a bowl, be romantic, or go do whatever you do for fun. If you need ideas, try this. Any of these things will be time FAR better spent than obsessing about some irrelevant thing over which you have no control.

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